Statistic•Football
Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals estimates the probability that a shot will become a goal based on the quality of the chance.
Plain definition
xG measures the quality of the chances a team or player creates. Each shot receives a value based on factors such as its location, angle and type of attacking move. Adding those values gives the number of goals an average finisher would be expected to score from those chances.
Derived terms
xGA
Expected Goals Against: the expected goals conceded, calculated from the quality of the opposition's chances.
xGD
Expected Goal Difference: the difference between expected goals created and expected goals conceded.
Why it matters
xG helps separate a genuinely dangerous team from one that has simply finished well over a small sample. It describes attacking production more clearly than goals alone and provides a strong foundation for analysing form, clean sheets, Both Teams to Score and goal totals.
Practical example
A team takes 12 shots but most come from difficult positions and the total reaches only 0.8 xG. The shot count is high, but the chances were not especially dangerous.
Related terms
Betting•Football
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score is a market on whether each team will score at least one goal in the match.
Expression•Football
Clean Sheet
A clean sheet is recorded when a team finishes a match without conceding a goal.
Betting
Over/Under
An Over/Under bet predicts whether a total will finish above or below a set line.